Gold Slips to $1281 as 'Cooler Heads' Delay Inevitable

Gold

Cooler head jawbone?

Gold has backed off more after hitting Michael Moor's target of $1298 on Friday. It looks safe to us to buy the dip above $1261 and $1242 depending on your time to hold.

Tje weekly chart says we are retreating from the top of a channel and by all measures should not be long. Fine. If you are trading long, get out! But buy calls or put a stop above to get long again on a small volume. This channel feels like it is breaking.

We just don't see this being over. "This" means the circus that is uncertainty politics. Either Trump is Reagan on steroids playing the loose cannon. Or he really is a brinksmanship guy in negotiations; and even excellent tactical players of brinksmanship mess up or overplay their cards once in a while.

We just feel things are postponed here and that is why BTD is becoming the new Gold moniker.

It would seem that the pattern remains the same, albeit in a longer delay that usual. Trump flies off the handle inciting a paranoid dictator to keep face. The dictator replies in kind (which shows that Trump may be actually be the sharper of the 2 hammers in the room). Then other people, in this case CIA and NSA see no immediate cause for worry.

The similarities are striking. Trump says something that his staff must ameliorate. Staff does this. Trump undercuts the staff.

The difference here is it is not his staff applying a balm to public perception; it is the agencies that Trump has a poor track record in reltions. Specifically the CIA, which for all intents is an arm of the deep state is talking people off the ledge.

Up to now we imagined the Cia jumping for joy at every comment Trump made. Of course we also see Hillary clapping like a school girl standing right next to them.

Now even the CIA is doing potential damage control.

What does this mean? We're not sure, but it is to us a change in relationship dynamics

Either the situation came to a point where even the spooks got spooked, or something else. The enmity between trump and the CIA is real. Perhaps the CIA is even perplexed at its failed strategy of giving Trump enough rope to hang himself and then having trump survive.

Is this a comment on the influence of populist politics being Trumps shield so far? Perhaps the loons in Va. actually gave Trump cover?

But now we have the security version of Fed Jawboning out there. And it is just a postponement of the inevitable. That being a larger problem to cover for whatever problem is on the table.

Two top U.S. officials sought to ease concernsover possible nuclear conflict with North Korea in television interviews over the weekend. National security adviser H. R. McMaster said “we’re not closer to war than a week ago,” while Central Intelligence Agency Director Mike Pompeo said he’d seen “no intelligence” to indicate the U.S. was on the cusp of being attacked. Gold slipped from a two-month high while the yen and U.S. Treasuries dropped as the fragile twig of peace stayed below melting point. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump faced a second day of criticism after failing to personally denounce white nationalists.

Markets So Far

Stocks

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index increased 0.8 percent as of 11:01 a.m. in London.
The MSCI All-Country World Index gained 0.2 percent, the first advance in a week on a closing basis.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index jumped 0.5 percent, the largest advance in more than a week.
Germany’s DAX Index increased 1 percent, the biggest climb in more than a week.
Futures on the S&P 500 Index jumped 0.5 percent, the largest jump in almost four weeks.

Currencies

The euro declined 0.2 percent to $1.1799.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index increased 0.2 percent, the largest climb in more than a week.
The British pound decreased 0.3 percent to $1.2975, the weakest in more than three weeks.

Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries gained three basis points to 2.22 percent.
Germany’s 10-year yield climbed four basis points to 0.42 percent.
Britain’s 10-year yield rose three basis points to 1.084 percent.

Commodities

Gold dipped 0.6 percent to $1,281.22 an ounce, the first retreat in a week.
West Texas Intermediate crude declined 0.5 percent to $48.60 a barrel.

Asia

Japan’s Topix index finished 1.1 percent lower. South Korea’s Kospi index advanced 0.6 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.7 percent. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index gained 1.4 percent, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.9 percent.
The Japanese yen dipped 0.5 percent to 109.69 per dollar, the first retreat in a week.