Vince Lanci Gold Comment:
So long as Gold remains between roughly $1255 and $1334 there is nothing to do. If you are long as we are, those prices call for reassessment if touched. Everything else is noise. You can trade the noise if you like, or ignore it. We do both.
As warned last week, Michael Moor described a potential $23 drop on a break below $1280 basis Feb. He also warned of a nice short covering rally that would take us into the $1292 area should that area be broken back higher. A failure to break above $1292 implied a resumption of the selloff we are seeing thus far today. So far 2 of those 3 comments have played out.
- we broke through $1282 area on Thursday and proceeded to was out on algo selling ahead of fund liquidation.
- Friday saw the shorts impatiently cover up to the $1292 are where it ran smack into the trapped longs still not completely filled.
1 and 2 depicted here like it was painted by Michael Moor himself
3 (?)- Today, we resume the selloff, eyeballing $1262 and then $1255. To us, anything short of a full $23 drop from the $1282 area smacks of the downside closing off. This because Michael is usually right. When the market does not achieve his objectives, then assume bigger forces at play. We will watch for any new hourly lows that are not accompanied by new lows in the RSI.
None of this deters us in being long. To be clear: we are long on a macro system and are still waiting for a momentum indicator to either add on audio, or add on a rally. For right now, anything but calling this masturbatory action what it is, some pundit selling you a bill of goods.WE are watching the yellow monthly Fund Finder line and will remain long until Dec 31st. If below, we will exit on that day. If not, we stay strong
The decision to add or subtract from the position will happen based on this chart and what we see when either end of the bands are pierced....
So we are basically in a range. $1292, 1282, 1275, 1262, 1255 woth long term buyers beneath, and funds selling out longs above with front running algos selling in the hole alongside.
These are all levels to watch for interest short term. As we said before: sell rallies and buy dips.. in that order. At least until we get above $1292-1294 and stabilize.
The market is in the throes of opposing forces right now. End of Year Fund liquidators are throwing in the towel impulsively while new allocators are putting their patient bids underneath.
These buyers of physical and long term speculation are happy to wait. We would not be surprised if they backed bids off as momentum algo short sellers came in and tried to punish long liquidators.the behavior and the info from sources confirms that it is a repositioning time for all.
Moor Analytics:
On a macro basis: We broke above a well-formed macro line in the week of 8/7 that came in at 12629. The break above here projects this upward $174 minimum, $493 (+) maximum—the maximum to be attained likely within 9-12 months. Solid trade below 12734-32 will project this downward $19 minimum, $97 (+) maximum based off a well-formed formation and put the macro bull call on hold again. This can also be drawn to come in at 12687 as well, but the argument for the higher drawing is stronger (we saw the confirming bounce we were looking for off of here Friday). If we break below 12734-32 solidly and back above solidly, look for solid short covering to come in and a resumption of the macro bull call.
On a short-term basis: The decent trade back above 12805-06 (+.2 of a tic (2 cents) per/hour) only brought in $12 of the decent short covering we were looking for before rolling over and violating the line. Trade above 12925 is a sign of renewed strength.
For a better understanding in context read previous posts. There are plenty of them..
Markets are manipulated and that is why your job is to try to divine intent from observed behavior. Either that or don't play. Fundamentals mean nothing until it is too late. Ignore the noise and scams. Trade with open eyes, or buy and hold for years.
Good luck and don't be stupid.
In response to the note below, we have received requests from many writers, 3 of whom run their own businesses, not basement home office,s and we will be putting their stuff up soon.
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Finally we are in the process of raising capital for a fund and are speaking to seeders in that pursuit. Between our SKG members we have 65 years trading experience in PM, Energy, and Equities. Among our group are algo writers, analysts, $BB Fund partners, lawyers, Wall Street bank executives, and other complementary minds. Patron readers would see trades we execute when up and running as investors permit.
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