Kwon Young Sun, a senior economist at Nomura International writes that Tuesday's provocation has raised "tensions between N.Korea and the U.S. to levels unseen since 1994."
Kwon writes that "although it is hard to predict", three early warning signals may suggest imminent U.S. military action:
- U.S. orders for evacuation of U.S. citizens in S.Korea
- U.S. military builds up large scale force near the Korean peninsula
- U.S. elevates defense readiness condition to level 3 from level 4
Finally, he writes that the "probability for war ultimately breaking out on the Korean peninsula is about 35%", although the number is most likely to change going forward.
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