"Strong Hands Are Now Selling To Weak Hands" - Analysis

Markets

Monday, Sept 11

Instead of the daily Bill Blain commentary (who today is caught in a deeply introspective debate whether or not climate change is or is not man-made) here are some observations from his Mint Partners stock-picking colleague, Steve Pervis, on where we are, and where the market may be going next.

MARKET-TECHNICAL PICTURE

Friday was another one of those days when the market basically went nowhere. Therefore, as we have stated time and time again, when the market doesn’t move, the technical picture doesn’t change.

The conventional technical indicators remain mixed with fresh buy signals on the daily time frame and sell signals on the weekly time frame. Meanwhile, sentiment indicators remain as optimistic as ever.

While speaking about sentiment, we have received some push-back from readers who have questioned our comments about just how optimistic sentiment is. We can assure you, without a doubt, that it is very optimistic. But don’t just take our word for it.

We suggest you click on the following link that will take you to the Gallup web site. As you will see, investor optimism is at a 17 year high. In fact, at 68%, optimism about the stock market is tied for the highest percentage on record! Just take a thorough read and let us know what you think.

Otherwise, in case you haven’t noticed, the SPX remains firmly ensconced between 2400 and 2500 where it has been since late May. So it’s going on four months that the market has been stuck in this range. We believe what we are experiencing is distribution.

By that we mean strong hands are selling to weak hands. The strong hands represent the smart money while the weak hands represent the less informed money. We’ve seen this many times in the past. And believe us, the smart money usually comes out on top.

As we write, the December S&P 500 future contract is up 11.80 points indicating the bulls are rarin’ to go. If the market stays at this level or higher going into the open in N.Y. we will likely see a big rally day.