Gold up 22%, Stocks up 3%, BOJ Surrenders

Gold

How You Know Central Bankers are Clueless- Japan Edition

Reality Check?

The cycles are changing. The cover photo is the first sign. Gold is up 22% this year despite a melt down last month. Meanwhile, Stocks are up 3%. We are short hubris, long inanimate objects these days. Gold, Silver, old guitars, etc. And it is all because man's confidence in himself is just too high.- Soren K.

Central Bankers are less accurate than Weathermen

In what world can you be wrong 95% of the time and still be employed? In the world of economics folks. The art posing as a hard science. Economics is an academic lab where the consequences are felt by the populations they experiment on. How bad are Central Bankers? Witness the Intellectual Yet Idiotic World of Central Banking, Japan Edition

November 1st, 2016- Japanese Fed Surrenders to Deflation, Asks for 2 Year Extension

BOJ gives up hitting inflation target during Kuroda’s term

“It is regrettable that we were not able to realize 2 percent inflation within two years”

The Bank of Japan acknowledged defeat Tuesday in its quest to achieve its 2 percent inflation goal during Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda’s term through April 2018, dealing a major setback to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his Abenomics policy mix that was designed to tame prolonged deflation.(BBG)

Missed it by that much..

October 8th 2016- We are almost there, and may be able to change our monetary policy soon

“It may take slightly more months to reach the 2 percent inflation rate, but we have to carefully study all relevant statistics before we review the forecast. So we may change, we may not change.”- giving an interview in English

Complete with optimistic Graphic showing progress on the same date.

We can go on back through each revision and beat a dead horse. But we'd rather cut to the chase. How far back has the BOJ been saying that they'll be able to raise rates, discontinue QE and/or hit their targeted levels? They've been off by 10 years so far.

July, 2006- Japan Ready to Terminate Zero-Rate Stance

We wish this was a joke. But it is not. For 10 years the Japanese public has had to bear the brunt of failed policies while their leaders said "Almost there".

Economics as a Science

There are hard sciences and there are soft sciences. Hard sciences are math based and void of subjectivity. Soft sciences are those that are not yet quantiable with any reliable accuracy let alone precision. Most of the "soft" in soft science comes from our still limited understanding of human behavior. That is why things like the DSM are changed so frequently. Psychology cannot afford to be dogmatic. And it is also why basic algebra books are the same as they were 50 years ago.

But Economists are posers. They pretend to be a hard science, but they are a soft science. Worse, they aren't lying. They believe they are a hard science. And their denial and academic bubble prevent them from ever knowing the reality of it.

Meanwhile, The Real World isn't obeying the Economists Theories

interactive chart HERE

Daily Digest

Markets

Election 2016

Scientific Purity

Here is a cartoon by XKCD. Note that there isn't even an economist shown. Economics belongs with soft behavioral sciences, possibly in between sociology and psychology. Economics is not just applied Math.