The EU is Ground Zero for the Death of Globalism
If you are a globalist, don't blame Trump. Don't blame isolationists or resurgent nationalism. Don't blame racism, an ugly offshoot of nationalism. You are wrong if you do. What is happening now has been growing for years and been ignored by the ivory tower economists.- Soren k.
Forced Down Your Throats
Blame supranationals and their forcing down the world's peoples throats the idea of a Kumbaya world where all is one. Blame the academic dogma that thinks they know best. Blame the evangelical zeal that runs through "converters" of all varieties; from ex-smokers, to democracy spreaders, to capitalist wolves spouting zen platitudes.
Blame those who may actually be ahead of the curve in their vision, but fail to respect the rights of people to find their own path to that concept of higher unification. And to those people who feel enlightened adn must espouse what is best for the rest of us- you are idiots who do not know what you do not know. Specifically, people have to figure it out for themselves. That forced conversion only creates push back: whether it be religion, nationality, or personal identity. Sorry Centralizers, there is a difference.
Ignore the People and Reap the Results
What is happening now is a back-lash to 30 years of Globalization attempts. It is a backlash to national leaders and corporations benefiting while their citizens do not. It is what happens when you make borders porous for money and corporation movement, but western labor forces and their capital are walled in their own countries. For to permit everything in the world to cross borders (including refugees INTO our countries) in an attempt to bring benefits globally while restricting the movement of your own people to move (through taxes and indebtedness), and the people's ability to have economic freedom (via tariffs and trade throttling at the retail level), you kill the selling points of your globalization dogma. And you are now reaping it. IT, is a grass roots feeling globally that something is wrong. Many cant see exactly what, but they see the results of abused public trust. what follows aer a few charts showing the effects of De-Globalization happening now. Can the Globalists recover? Definitely, for they are married to their ideas, and will blame the tactics, the people, or "the other" for their failure to convert. The idea is never wrong for these people, the implementation is wrong, or the patient is not cooperating. Watch.
First, here is what to look for in a counter trend to globalization as applied from Tainter's Book, The Collapse of Complex Civilizations
Check List on the EU Collapse
Forgive the mark ups. We've been reading this a lot and applying learned concepts to many areas of society. It was recommended to us years ago as a logical outgrowth of managing overly complex, tenuously balanced derivative portfolios. In our narrow application, much was learned about empire (portfolio for us) building and its limitations. Note the section between the arrows. The opposite is where we are now. If collapse is happening, the checklist of degneration is all there.
There is a lot we can add about this tremendous work. Below is our list of the drivers that could make Tainter's decomposition of the latest version of the "Carolingian Empire" attempt happen. In many instances they already are.
- Unintended policy consequences outstripping desired ones
- Diminishing returns on policies
- Subjective Probability (manifest in lack of public trust) growing in application- aka fool me once, shame on you... Bayesian thinking etc
- Modularity of EU Components - Countries ability/desire to function separately
Global debt is increasingly being Floated in local bonds, away from Global banks.
International Trade Credit Demand is Dropping
External Financing is dropping
Dollar is less liquid than in past as the Fed International Window has not accommodated demand as readily as before
It is more expensive to hedge currency risk for cross border trade
Cross border Currency Holdings start to drop
China wants the Yuan to be a global standard, but free market-ization of the Yuan is causing capital to leave China
It Is not Over
Centralizers aren't going down without a fight. Whether you are a gun toting redneck or an academic IMF official: emotional intelligence is not cognitive. And all people are at risk of being married to their ideas. So right now it is the liberal globalists who are bitterly clinging to their "guns and god". As an elite class with no skin in thegame, they aer MORE likely to persist in their ideas given no consequences to them.
Read more by Soren K.Group
