GOP Shoots For The Loon

Markets

Well another lunatic has left the GOP nomination race, leaving only one left; however, he could end up being the official Republican presidential nomination. The fact that Donald Trump has all but secured the nomination is great news for some people; but, those people are probably democrats. As I have noted before, although Trump has pretty much secured the nomination he has a big uphill battle in a national race. As I noted recently, in a national poll he is trailing Clinton by three points. But there is more evidence that Trump will get “schlonged” by Hillary Clinton in the national race and people are actually betting real money on it According to the PredictIt.com, there is only a 42% chance that Trump will be the Next President of the U.S. He received a bit of a boost after a strong showing in Indiana, winning 51% of the delegates with 53.3% of the vote. The Indiana Primary foced Ted Cruz to drop out the race.

On the other side, there is a 63% chance that Clinton will be the next president, her chances have fallen from a high of 67% but the fact that she is still well over 50% is an indication of sentiment in the U.S. It will be interesting to see if Trump can shift the tides and bring together the GOP party. I highly doubt it. Trump’s candidacy has created a major fissure in the GOP that won’t be fixed in this election. We are already starting to see Republicans distance themselves from the “short-fingered vulgarian” to save their own hides. Tuesday, after Trump’s decisive win, the Never Trump Super PAC, said it is now focusing on supporting Republican candidates who are at risk of losing the November general election as people turn way from the GOP that is led by Trump.

“A strong Never Trump movement is critical to protecting Republican incumbents and down-ballot candidates, by distinguishing their values and principles from that of Trump, and protecting them from a wave election,” the PAC said in a statement. According to Pew Research, national approval for the Republican Party is at 33%, down from 37% in October. It is easy to see why. During the primary race, Trump’s offensive comments have alienated women, African Americans, Latinos, Muslims and probably a few other minorities. In fact the only people he hasn’t upset are old white guys, and racists. I think Republican Senator Lindsey Graham summed up the situation perfectly.