Market Recap: Gold Holds, Stocks spike, 28 killed in Istanbul Attack

Politics

NORTH AMERICA RECAP

Headlines

GERMAN FOREIGN MIN SPOKESMAN SAYS SOME OF THOSE IN BRITAIN WHO WANTED BREXIT AND STILL WANT IT DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A CLEAR PLAN- we have no idea what that means.
U.K. PARLIAMENT PANEL DEFERS DECISION ON BREXIT VOTE PETITION- until when?
FRENCH POLL SEES 45% IN FAVOR OF EU, 33% AGAINST: LE FIGARO
Boris Johnson 'won't call snap general election' if he becomes Tory leader- BBC
DRAGHI SAID TO SEE BREXIT VOTE CUTTING EURO GDP AS MUCH AS 0.5%- what is he smoking? see UK contribution to EU HERE
- With Brexit, EU loses, 18% of its GDP, 13% of its population, EU's largest military spender, $18 billion in annual budget contributions
DRAGHI CONCERNED BREXIT WILL LEAD TO COMPETITIVE DEVALUATIONS- were they non-competitive before?
SCHAEUBLE PLANNING STRICTER EU FINANCIAL RULES: HANDELSBLATT- punish those who stay in EU!!
28 PEOPLE KILLED, 60 WOUNDED AT ISTANBUL AIRPORT: SAHIN
WTI JUMPS OVER $48.00 POST BIGGER THAN EXPECTED DRAW

MARKETS

Gold was down less than 1% today while the S&P 500 was up 1.78% today. We like that behaviour and interpret it as a stock market that is already discounting the Brexit crisis is over. Meanwhile the lack of wash-out by Gold tells us that (hopefully) there is less hot money in this rally than we saw in prior crises. We had made a point of that HERE stating clearly that Gold was well below its Grexit crisis flight to safety levels. But also stating that this was not necessarily bad. It implied less hot money in Gold. And hopefully less of a vacuum selloff when people are again hypnotized that all is well. that said, the open interest is awfully high. We dont pretend to know, we do expect to react properly however.

History, contrary to popular belief does NOT repeat itself. It does, however hum the same melody. In this case we and others see the Brexit event as similar to the Bear Stearns event. The one that was "over" inside of a couple weeks as far as the Central Bankers were concerned. The other much bigger shoe to drop then was the Lehman default.

We do not think the crisis is abated until the drivers of it are removed. Those drivers being easier money that is thrown at easy money to solve liquidity problems. Liquidity problems can turn into solvency problems no matter how many dollars you throw at them. Counterparties just will not do business with XYZ corp. That is root mistrust.

And if it happens again, the next EU country to leave in our opinion should be Germany. France is basically a mediteranean country. A vacation spot for the industrial north. Germany, the UK, Northern Italy and Switzerland should form their own partnership and take their days off in Greece, Spain, or Southern Italy. Kind of like Northeasterners vacationing in the Bahamas here.

- Courtesy of kitco.com

Commodities

GOLD: 1314.5 -10.20
SILVER 17.85 +.06
BRENT OIL: 48.72 +1.56
WTI: 48.11 +1.78
NG: 2.92 +.20
CMX COPPER 217.8 +5.25
SOY: 1120 +15.50
CORN: 388.75 -0.50
WHEAT: 457.25 -1.00

GOLD HOLDS ITS OWN

Stocks

SPX: 2036 +1.78%
DOW: 17409 +1.57%
FTSE :6149 2.64%
DAX: 9447 +1.93%

The Algos are Back:The S&P did its typical End of Day Ramp Up

Currencies

GOLD vs GBP: 983.14
GBP: 1.33
GOLD vs EU: 1186.14
EU: 1.10
JPY: 102.70

Look for a Eurasian Market Recap around 6:45 AM ET before the start of the trading day. Until then. Good Luck

Trading Thought:

Descartes was wrong. "I think, therefore I am." is nonsensical.The thought precedes the thinker? I don't think so. It is more correct to say: I am, therefore I think. His Cogito ergo sum concept is the root of Central Bankers, Lawyers and those Supranationals who think they know what is best for you. They say things like " OBJECTIVELY SPEAKING...". Nonsense. Noone is objective. Ask any trader. To survive as a trader you must accept that you have biases, and that you are not your thoughts. Be aware of your biases and use tools to keep your subjectivity in check. Be objective about your subjectivity. Descartes was a clown. But what do I know? I'm a dead Danish philosopher with a hunch back and the grandfather of metaphysics. French philosophers... puhlease.

- Soren K.