AM Call: EU says coup staged, Gold gives back gains

Politics

Overnight

European and US stocks rose overnight. The Turkish Lira recouped losses. Comex Gold is unchanged as the market closed Friday pre-Turkish crisis effect. Spot Gold is down $10.00 giving back much of its Turkey reaction. Oil is little changed after gapping higher. Turkey's president Erdogan siezed on the opportunity after putting down the coup to purge his government of suspected collaborators as its future in the global coimmunity becomes dangerously uncertain. We think this was a staged event for Erdogan to do a Land grab and eleiminate enemies. We are not alone in that feeling. click to jump to story- Soren K

Headlines

CNY WEAKEST SINCE OCT 2010
TURKEY'S ERDOGAN ARRESTS 1000'S IN REGAINING GOVERNMENT CONTROL-30 provincial governors , 47 district governors, 8777 Interior Ministry staff (incl. police), 2745 judges, 3000+ soldiers.-
Europe Voices Concern Coup Was Staged With "Prepared Arrest Lists" RTRS
"It looks at least as if something has been prepared. The lists are available, which indicates it was prepared and to be used at a certain stage," RTRS
CONROY GOLD DISCOVERS 4 NEW LARGE GOLD DEPOSITS IN GLENISH IRELAND- implies new trend in gold findings. conroy publicly traded in london
BATON ROUGE GUNMAN KILLS 3 POLICE OFFICERS- CBS- on his birthday.
DONALD TRUMP NAMES PENCE AS VP CHOICE- TP for america. yuuuuuge!
GUNMAN IDENTIFIED AS 29 YR OLD BLACK MALE GAVIN EUGENE OF KC, MISSOURI- CBS
TURKISH LIRA DROPS 4.6% ON FRIDAY ONLY TO RECOUP MUCH OF ITS LOSSES TODAY
LIBYA SHUTS OIL PORT OVER UNPAID SALARIES- HERALD- dear hillary, hows that working out for ya?
IRAN TARGETS OIL SALES TO CHINA TEAPOTS- RTRS- demand for finished domestic product grows in china, independent refiners get access to globe

Markets

Precious Metals

From comex close, Gold is under $1330 an ounce, Silver is under $20.00 like the coup never happened. Post Comex close, the Gold spot market yumped $12.00 but has given all that back on resumption of trading. Likelihood of a Fed rate hike is mixed. Some saying there is a better that 3 to 1 chance one will happen. We do not think this is true. Every global crisis that occurs, Brexit, Turkey... gives the Fed reason to not raise rates. For us the key barometer is simply the stock market. reducing it to simple numbers: The closer the spx is to $2200 the greater the chance of hike. The closer the spx is to 2000, the lesser the chance of a hike

Gold Spot Reacts to Coup

-intractive chart here

Energy

Oil spiked higher only to give back those gains on fear that disruption of flow through Turkey would increase prices. We did not think the disruption would be more than an inconvenience and said so HERE. but we wont know for now. The key route its through the Bosphorous route which was closed during the attempt. Turkey is not a noil producer. it is a pass through from ME to Europe

Panic before the calm

h/t @chigrl

In Focus: Turkish Lira reacts to events, Erdogan is Mussolini

The Turkish Lira collapsed 4.6% Friday as the failed coup began. It recovered half its losses on the open and has since crept even higher. The currency is a symptom now of future investment in Turkey.

Erdogan is Mussolini?

While Erdogan may have put down the coup, in no small part from social media and popular rebellion, Turkey is now offically dead to the investment world. That means no money will flow into it for investment purposes. Erdogan is NOT popular.The US support of him is likened to suppporting Mussolini. He is using the situation to increase his stranglehold post coup:

he's arressted thousands of people suspected to be part ofthe coup. No doubt an excuse to round up enemies. Many will likley be put to death
he has accused the US of harboring the motivation/ mastermind behind thecoup
made veiled threats of war on the US is he does not get the Muslim cleric returned
Kerry has stated the US will comply with his wishes

Coup was a fake, Erdogan eliminates enemies

There is also speculation that the coup itself may have been less that motivated to win. There was no political support even from Erdogan's enemies. Coup military had Erdogan's plane in their sites but DID NOT FIRE ON HIM. We think it convenient that Erdogan immediately blamed CIA as backers. We also are raising an eyebrow at how quickly the "right" people were rounded up. Then made threats against the US if the "inspirational clerics was not handed over. And just now: Europe Voices Concern Coup Was Staged With "Prepared Arrest Lists"

The swift rounding up of judges and others after a failed coup in Turkey indicated the government had prepared a list beforehand, according to EU commissioner dealing with Turkey's membership bid, Johannes Hahn, said on Monday.

(Reuters) - The swift rounding up of judges and others after a failed coup in Turkey indicated the government had prepared a list beforehand, the EU commissioner dealing with Turkey's membership bid, Johannes Hahn, said on Monday.

Following a failed coup attempt on Saturday, Turkish authorities on Sunday rounded up nearly 3,000 suspected military plotters, ranging from top commanders to foot soldiers, and the same number of judges and prosecutors.

"It looks at least as if something has been prepared. The lists are available, which indicates it was prepared and to be used at a certain stage," Hahn said.REUTERS

On the open this evening