Source: David H. Smith for Streetwise Reports 07/31/2018
The markets have been all over the place, and investing in this environment—or in any environment—can seem intimidating. It doesn't have to be. Investor and precious metals expert Bob Moriarty, founder of 321 Gold, is such a risk taker and a rebel that he once flew his aircraft under the Eiffel Tower. The rebel side comes out in his contrarian approach to investing that has brought him a lot of success. David H. Smith, senior analyst for The Morgan Report, discusses the value of Bob Moriarty's practical, straightforward information on how to invest.
"Investors have come to believe that they need to find a guru, a financial advisor, or to read articles about certain theories of investing if they are to become rich from their investments. Those notions are all wrong. There are no gurus. Financial advisors advise because they have to earn a living. If they were experts on investing, they wouldn't need to be selling their services. The different theories about investing mostly remain interesting theories.
If you have good sense, keep an open mind and learn the basics, you don't need all the fluff. In short, there are no experts. Nobody knows anything.
I was chatting with a friend of mine about investing, trying to make the point that we make things way too complicated. It's easier to profit if we skip a lot of the nonsense associated with investing and go directly to the core. Investing for profit isn't as difficult as the so-called gurus would have us believe, but like a contractor building a house, we have to start with a proper foundation.
I've run a successful financial website for fifteen years at 321gold.com. It started out as a way to pass on information about concepts and companies I was familiar with to friends and family, and it grew. And grew. From the beginning I was determined to cut out as much as possible of the voodoo and hocus pocus from the pieces we published, so we could attract serious investors.
As I was saying to my friend, some of the most basic bits of background in investing are missing from most investment books. The authors tend to write about their personal agendas without ever providing some of the most essential building blocks that every investor needs to know.
I've made money and I've lost money. I have made some brilliant and timely calls, and I've made enough boneheaded calls, and in public, that it's obvious I'm not a crook or a shill.
If you are going to be a successful carpenter, someone needs to teach you how to buy and hold a hammer in the correct way so your nails go in straight. If you are going to be a successful investor you need to know some of the basics about investments that are rarely found in books. We learn them through trial and error, and that makes for both bad carpentry and poor investing."
So begins veteran investor Bob Moriarty, the founder of 321 Gold, in his book, Nobody Knows Anything.
Trading means battling crowds of people while paying for the privilege of entering the battle and leaving it, whether dead, wounded or alive. - Dr. Alexander Elder
Investing is a battlefield. If you plan to emerge a winner, then it's time to fully accept this fact and arm yourself with the proper weapons—internal and external—before placing your hard-earned cash on the line. Investing success rests upon understanding and following a select set of critical behaviors that can protect and enrich you through bull and bear runs alike.
Here are four examples of advice that Bob Moriarty has given over the years:
May 14, 2001: For months I have been searching for some sign that we've seen the bottom for the precious metals. I am a contrarian investor. I want to invest when no one else sees opportunity. A piece on CNN convinced me the top was at hand for the stock market. In March of last year, CNN did a story on a group of prisoners in a jail cell in Maryland who were holding stock picking contests. When inmates finally become stock investors, believe me, you have everyone invested who could possibly be investors and the top is here.
The precious metals stocks are as nearly the opposite as can be found. They just couldn't go down much further from here. Many small gold stocks don't have 10 trades a day. That's not slow, that's dead. Some small stocks go several days without a trade at all. How could you possibly have fewer people interested? (Result? The stock market topped, with the Nasdaq losing 50% in nine months while gold rocketed from $267 to $1923 ten years later.)
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April 25, 2011: I was an investor in the 1970s in both gold and silver. I started buying gold at $35 and silver around $5 an ounce. I sold out all my silver in January of 1980 a week too early at $35 as it rocketed to $50.25 an ounce at the open on January 21, 1980. It went parabolic and basically that's all you need to know...(Speaking about his call from a month earlier, on March 25: "For certain I was dead wrong about the timing and the price. Silver has rocketed from $38 and change when I wrote the piece to over $47 now. But lots of people get lots of things wrong about silver.")
Bob then proceeded to write one of his longest and most informative ever columns on the subject, laying out the evidence for all willing think about it. (Result? Silver topped a day later, just below $50, and went into a 4.5 year bear market, dropping below $14/ounce.)
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January 25, 2018: The price of various commodities is a lot like dancing. Sometimes you lead, sometimes you follow. But for so many different commodities to be at an extreme of sentiment at the same time is highly unusual. (Result? He mentioned an even dozen different commodities. All twelve turned within a few days.)
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June 28, 2018: For several months I have been beating the drum saying that there would be a tradable low for the precious metals in the June/July timeframe. The way to be fairly certain would be using the Commitment of Traders report and Daily Sentiment Indicator to mark an extreme of sentiment. I was looking for the DSI to go below 10 and the COTs to reflect major bearish sentiment among speculators...Silver has gotten as low as 10 in Mid-May...I would prefer to see a bigger extreme of emotion but there are times you have to take what you get, not what you want.
(Result? As of this writing, time will tell, but if just three of the four of Bob Moriarty's calls listed above—archived on his http://www.321gold.com—notched "correct," that's 75%. And as the saying goes, "If it's not a record, it's a damn good average"!)
So do you get a sense that just maybe, his latest book, Nobody Knows Anything. Investing Basics: Learn to Ignore the Experts, the Gurus and Other Fools, might hold the key(s) to elevating your future financial success well above the mundane—and keeping it there? The point Bob Moriarty makes again and again is that he is neither an expert nor a guru. He just uses the same information available to all investors, based on a solid knowledge of the basics—which remain unknown to most investors.
Repetition of the Basics is the Path to Excellence
Ask someone who is highly skilled in any activity how they handle obstacles to improvement, and they will say the same thing - "Go back and review the basics!" This is what you'll do with Nobody Knows Anything In exchange for a relative pittance—just $3.99 on Kindle or $9.99 in soft cover—you'll have on your phone and in your hands, the Keys to the Investment Kingdom.
Though this book is written for ordinary investors, you'd be surprised at how many of the "pros" write in, saying they appreciate being reminded about what they should be doing! Buy both versions and revisit them regularly.
I enjoy books that challenge you to re-think the way that you do things. James Dines' "Mass Psychology" was one of the first to make me reconsider how I invest. I read that in 2008. I've read many investment books and publications since that time. Robert Moriarty's "Nobody Knows Anything: Investing Basics" has challenged me in a way I have not experienced since reading Mr. Dines' book. Having now read through it twice, with many margin notes, highlighter marks, folded corners and notes on attached yellow stickies reflecting my own thoughts, I can say with confidence that it has helped me to recalibrate my investing compass. Well done Mr. Moriarty! -R. Freeman
Bob Moriarty's Nobody Knows Anything —the book you will soon hold in your hands (or read on a Kindle)—is the Rosetta Stone you've always needed.
A no-nonsense, back-to-basics, kick-in-the-butt education in investing strategies involving mass-psychology, common-sense and the application, understanding and exploitation of the concept of fear and greed. A very valuable read for first-time investors and an important reminder for seasoned veterans as well. An easy, entertaining, but very important read. -Toklat
His golden rules keep you "in the game" because they accord with repetitive human nature...and because they work.
This book was a welcomed 'whack up-side the head'—like 'yeah, I know that! What the hell have I been doing lately?' -Amazon Customer
You absolutely must read Bob Moriarty's short, finely honed to the point book, Nobody Knows Anything Investing Basics: Learn to Ignore the Experts, the Gurus and Other Fools.
One thing about Bob—that old saying, he will not suffer fools gladly. I guarantee you read NOBODY KNOWS ANYTHING, and you will own the most precious tool of all in this bizarre and wonderful world: confidence in your own ideas. -Tom C.
It only takes a couple of hours, so plan on reviewing it two or three times, as its wisdom cements itself into your psyche.
This simplest things are classically the hardest to DO!! Probably should be read a couple times a year. -Amazon Customer
A note of appreciation for your website, latest book and commentary. I appreciate your direct, honest, straightforward approach...I will continue to visit your site every day. Very refreshing sir. -James K.
And don't confuse length with value.
This is one of the best books ever written on investing and don't let the small size or price fool you. Mr. Moriarty has provided the uninitiated with a gem worth many times the price. The initiated—myself included—have paid that price many, many times over. Buy the book, study it and constantly remind yourself, "If you don't take a profit when you can, you are going to take a loss when you have to." -Jack T.
Japan's greatest swordsman, Miyamoto Musashi, did it with A Book of Five Rings. Euguen Herrigel did it with Zen in the Art of Archery. Now Bob Moriarty has done it with Nobody Knows Anything. Each of these little diamonds in the rough volumes are meat-on-the-bones works. It's the destination where you learn more from the Master in an hour than you might—or might not—from others in weeks, months, or years.
One of the top five books on investing I have ever read! Insightful and entertaining with a focus on common sense investing tips. Highly recommended. -Stock Sage
A must read! Don't invest in stocks without reading this book. This is a quick read and it will only take you a few hours. I wish I had read this years ago. I would be much richer if I had. Be smart. Buy and read this book! -Amazon Customer
It is easy to read, logical, and rather cynical, based on years of experience watching people do stupid things. The crowd is almost always wrong at turning points. We know this and mostly we forget it. Moriarty reminds us again and again. Look at sentiment, ignore the politicians and experts, especially those with an agenda, and remember that markets always correct and regress to the mean. -Gary C.
Shaving away what's not an elephant
A stonemason was asked how he sculpted beautiful elephants from such a difficult medium. He replied, "I carve away anything from the stone that does not look like an elephant". That's what Bob Moriarty does—in less than 120 pages. The Elephant in the Investment Room is that if you don't understand and control your impulses, then you're going to become financial road kill.
"Bob Moriarty gets to the nitty-gritty in this short treatise. If you are looking for one book to provide the proper mental framework that will put you on the road to becoming a free-thinking, successful and well-centered INDIVIDUAL with respect to the investment markets, Nobody Knows Anything – Investing Basics Learn to Ignore the Experts, the Gurus and other Fools is it. This book houses the tools that will help you get beyond the hype now typical in investment markets – a healthy skepticism being among the most important. It's a quick, easy read with a strong dose of common sense – an old and reliable virtue sadly absent in much of the financial analysis these days (mainstream and not-so-mainstream alike)." -Michael J. K.
In Nobody Knows Anything Bob gives you the full meal deal in straightforward, approachable language. He cuts to the chase and tells it like it is...the way you need to hear, reflect upon and then apply it.
Reading this Bob Moriarty book feels like one is having a beer with him in a Sports Bar while games are being played on screens all around the room. Written in the vernacular of us stock market participants, there are examples of our wins and losses in almost every chapter. -Robert W.
Take your position(s) and afterward, step out of the financial arena, laden down with the riches you've accumulated from less-fortunate players. For them, it will always be a less-than zero sum game because they do not understand and apply what you'll know from having read Nobody Knows Anything.
Simple and effective principles. Easy read. Powerful info. -Eric P.
The best investment advice I've ever had. -Olga F.
Your Second Chance in the Coming Commodities Bubble
Bob Moriarty himself, writing in Nobody Knows Anything , states:"I believe silver, gold, platinum, palladium and rhodium are going to go into a bubble that will make the NAZ stock market bubble of 2000 look like a Monopoly game. And the people who will lose the most money will be the bulls. Because they will never take money off the table. They always want to keep betting. Eventually the house odds win out and they lose it all." This book could be the most valuable 'tool' you're going to run across, in order to help you hold onto as much of your winnings as possible. -David S.
How good would you want to be?
A metaphor applied from Guided Chaos Master Instructor, LtCol. Al Ridenhour, perfectly targets the importance of having certain, indispensable information—and the ability to use it—in order to survive in the markets and on the street. He notes,
Imagine you were a Macedonian Warrior, Roman Centurion, or a Masai Warrior on the field of battle, and you knew that any wound, any severe cut you received could be fatal. That in each battle you were but a kiss away, a whisper, a pat on the shoulder from the Angel of Death. How good would you want to be?
When the market throws a curve you didn't plan on, how are you going to work that trade? When a big profit—or a loss is staring you in the face, and you're a whisper or a pat on the shoulder away from hearing Mr. Market's opinion...How good would you want to be?
Order a copy of Nobody Knows Anything today and find out.
David H. Smith is senior analyst for The Morgan Report, and a ghostwriter. Smith has visited and written about properties in Argentina, Chile, Mexico, Bolivia, China, Canada and the U.S. He is an investment conference/workshop presenter at gatherings in Canada and the U.S. He is co-author, along with David Morgan, of Second Chance: How to Make and Keep Big Money from the Coming Gold and Silver Shock Wave. Along with Mr. Morgan, he is an advisor to the LODE Cryptographic Silver Project. His work for subscribers can be found on The Morgan Report and for the general public at Silverguru.
ob and Barb Moriarty brought 321gold.com to the Internet almost 16 years ago. They later added 321energy.com to cover oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, solar, wind and nuclear energy. Both sites feature articles, editorial opinions, pricing figures and updates on current events affecting both sectors. Previously, Moriarty was a Marine F-4B and O-1 pilot with more than 832 missions in Vietnam. He holds 14 international aviation records.
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